JD
LOWFI LOWFI

Buffalo Bills

2-0 · AFC East · 2026, through week 3
Record
2-0
Pythagorean pace 10.6 wins
Net rating
+4.4
#1 of 32 · +0.4 since last week
Schedule ahead
−0.3
played +0.3
Playoffs
88%
LOWFI/0 82%
Division
70%
LOWFI/0 57%
Wins
11.5
LOWFI/0 11.3

Scoring

BUF LEAGUE VS LEAGUE RANK
Points for 38.5 22.7 +15.8 1
Points against 31.0 22.4 −8.6 29
Point differential 7.5 0.0 +7.5 9

How Good, How Sure

Four Ways to Read Them

BUF read four ways, as a projected 17-game record: record 17.0, Pythagorean 10.6, LOWFI/0 11.3, LOWFI/1 11.5 wins.

Every Simulated Season

Win totals across 10,000 simulated seasons. LOWFI/1 averages 11.5 wins, most often 12 (17%). LOWFI/0 averages 11.3, most often 12 (15%).

LOWFI/1 Strength

LOWFI/1 strength in points per game against average. Offense +4.9 (90% band +1.4 to +8.3), rank 1. Defense −0.5 (90% band −3.2 to +2.3), rank 19. Net +4.4 (90% band −0.0 to +8.8), rank 1.

Where the Rating Comes From

Offense

How the LOWFI/1 offense rating is built, in build order: Market: offense +2.17, Market: net −1.28, Market, by week +0.52, Last season: offense −0.62, Last season: net +0.12, Last season, by week +0.02, Points scored +6.30, Points scored, by week −2.25, Recent scoring −0.29, Defenses faced +0.31, Schedule difficulty +0.17. Rating +5.17.

Defense

How the LOWFI/1 defense rating is built, in build order: Market: defense +0.44, Market: net −0.03, Market, by week +0.15, Last season: defense −0.19, Last season: net −0.12, Points scored +0.27, Points allowed −1.86, Points allowed, by week +1.20, Offenses faced +0.33, Schedule difficulty −0.72. Rating −0.53.

Week by Week

LOWFI/1

LOWFI/1 net rating by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason +2.6, week 1 +2.9, week 2 +4.0, week 3 +4.4.

LOWFI/0

True strength

LOWFI/0 true strength by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason 0.570, week 1 0.609, week 2 0.640, week 3 0.640.

Schedule

WK OPPONENT RESULT
EXPECTED MARGIN (+ = BUF favored)
WIN PROBABILITY
 AS OF
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET
1 @ W 36–31 −0.6 −2.2 +1.5 47% 43% 52% Sep 01
2 vs W 41–31 +3.6 +4.2 +4.5 60% 63% 66% Sep 15
3 vs +9.0 +8.6 +7.0 75% 74% 74% Sep 22
4 vs +6.5 +3.2 +5.5 69% 60% 69% Sep 25
5 @ +1.2 +0.1 — 54% 50% — Sep 25
6 @ +1.5 +3.1 — 54% 59% — Sep 25
8 vs +5.4 +7.4 — 66% 71% — Sep 25
9 @ −1.0 −0.8 — 47% 48% — Sep 25
10 @ +3.2 +5.5 — 60% 66% — Sep 25
11 vs +18.3 +10.0 — 91% 77% — Sep 25
12 vs +0.2 +5.8 — 51% 67% — Sep 25
13 @ +2.0 −1.2 — 56% 46% — Sep 25
14 @ +10.7 +3.2 — 79% 60% — Sep 25
15 vs +0.8 +5.2 — 52% 65% — Sep 25
16 @ +8.3 −0.8 — 73% 48% — Sep 25
17 @ +15.6 +5.5 — 88% 66% — Sep 25
18 vs +3.1 +10.0 — 59% 77% — Sep 25

Notes

Scoring

Per game, through week 3. In the VS LEAGUE column, plus is better - more scored, fewer allowed.

Four ways to read them

The same team read four ways, each as a projected 17-game record. Where Pythagorean and LOWFI/1 part ways, that's mostly who they've played.

Every simulated season

Every win total from 10,000 simulated seasons, one row per model. The dot is the average.

Where the rating comes from

What the LOWFI/1 rating is built from, in the order it's built. Green helps, orange hurts, and each bar picks up where the last one left off.

Week by week

Each point is what that Tuesday's run said, before that week's games - nothing here gets refit after the fact. LOWFI/1 is in points and LOWFI/0 is a probability, so they get their own panels.

Schedule

Games already played show what was on file before kickoff, next to the result. Games ahead show this week's numbers. Every margin reads from this team's side, so plus means they're favored, and every number in a row is as of the date on the right.