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Detroit Lions

5-2 · NFC North · 2026, through week 8
Record
5-2
Pythagorean pace 9.7 wins
Net rating
+2.5
#6 of 32 · −0.3 since last week
Schedule ahead
−0.1
played −0.3
Playoffs
81%
LOWFI/0 77%
Division
26%
LOWFI/0 22%
Wins
10.8
LOWFI/0 10.7

Scoring

DET LEAGUE VS LEAGUE RANK
Points for 29.0 23.1 +5.9 3
Points against 25.7 23.0 −2.7 23
Point differential 3.3 0.0 +3.3 10

How Good, How Sure

Four Ways to Read Them

DET read four ways, as a projected 17-game record: record 12.1, Pythagorean 9.7, LOWFI/0 10.7, LOWFI/1 10.8 wins.

Every Simulated Season

Win totals across 10,000 simulated seasons. LOWFI/1 averages 10.8 wins, most often 11 (22%). LOWFI/0 averages 10.7, most often 11 (21%).

LOWFI/1 Strength

LOWFI/1 strength in points per game against average. Offense +3.1 (90% band +0.7 to +5.5), rank 3. Defense −0.6 (90% band −2.7 to +1.4), rank 21. Net +2.5 (90% band −0.6 to +5.6), rank 6.

Where the Rating Comes From

Offense

How the LOWFI/1 offense rating is built, in build order: Market: offense +2.16, Market: net −1.28, Market, by week −0.19, Last season: offense −0.61, Last season: net +0.13, Last season, by week +0.00, Points scored +2.67, Points scored, by week +0.28, Recent scoring −0.38, Defenses faced +0.49, Schedule difficulty −0.07. Rating +3.20.

Defense

How the LOWFI/1 defense rating is built, in build order: Market: defense +0.47, Market: net −0.03, Market, by week −0.02, Last season: defense −0.05, Last season: net −0.11, Points scored +0.28, Points allowed −0.49, Points allowed, by week −0.05, Offenses faced +0.47, Schedule difficulty −1.11. Rating −0.65.

Week by Week

LOWFI/1

LOWFI/1 net rating by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason +2.6, week 1 +2.0, week 2 +2.2, week 3 +2.3, week 4 +1.8, week 5 +3.2, week 6 +3.3, week 7 +2.8, week 8 +2.5.
LOWFI/1 offense by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason +2.3, week 1 +1.9, week 2 +2.6, week 3 +3.0, week 4 +2.8, week 5 +4.4, week 6 +4.5, week 7 +3.8, week 8 +3.1.
LOWFI/1 defense by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason +0.3, week 1 +0.1, week 2 −0.4, week 3 −0.6, week 4 −1.0, week 5 −1.1, week 6 −1.2, week 7 −1.0, week 8 −0.6.

LOWFI/0

True strength

LOWFI/0 true strength by week, as each Tuesday's run had it: preseason 0.510, week 1 0.547, week 2 0.512, week 3 0.544, week 4 0.506, week 5 0.529, week 6 0.529, week 7 0.562, week 8 0.592.

Schedule

WK OPPONENT RESULT
EXPECTED MARGIN (+ = DET favored)
WIN PROBABILITY
 AS OF
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET
1 vs W 31–30 +7.7 +4.1 +7.0 72% 62% 73% Sep 01
2 @ L 31–41 −3.6 −4.2 −4.5 40% 37% 34% Sep 15
3 vs W 31–24 +7.8 +5.9 +6.5 72% 67% 72% Sep 22
4 @ L 26–32 +1.7 +0.6 +3.5 55% 51% 61% Sep 29
5 @ W 45–21 +4.2 +2.2 +4.5 62% 57% 66% Oct 06
7 vs W 20–17 +5.8 +1.4 +3.0 67% 55% 60% Oct 20
8 vs W 19–15 +2.7 −1.6 +3.0 58% 46% 60% Oct 27
9 @ +6.9 +5.7 +7.0 69% 67% 75% Nov 03
10 vs +3.6 +0.8 — 60% 52% — Nov 03
11 vs +3.6 +7.4 — 60% 71% — Nov 03
12 vs +0.2 −0.0 — 51% 50% — Nov 03
13 @ +2.4 +2.5 — 57% 57% — Nov 03
14 vs +9.8 +12.7 — 77% 83% — Nov 03
15 @ −4.5 −3.8 — 37% 39% — Nov 03
16 vs +5.1 +5.7 — 65% 67% — Nov 03
17 @ −6.3 −4.5 — 32% 37% — Nov 03
18 @ −0.8 −0.8 — 48% 48% — Nov 03

Notes

Scoring

Per game, through week 8. In the VS LEAGUE column, plus is better - more scored, fewer allowed.

Four ways to read them

The same team read four ways, each as a projected 17-game record. Where Pythagorean and LOWFI/1 part ways, that's mostly who they've played.

Every simulated season

Every win total from 10,000 simulated seasons, one row per model. The dot is the average and the dark lines are the credible interval.

Where the rating comes from

What the LOWFI/1 rating is built from, in the order it's built. Green helps, orange hurts, and each bar picks up where the last one left off.

Week by week

Each point is what that Tuesday's run said, before that week's games - nothing here gets refit after the fact. LOWFI/1 is in points and LOWFI/0 is a probability, so they get their own panels.

Schedule

Games already played show what was on file before kickoff, next to the result. Games ahead show this week's numbers. Every margin reads from this team's side, so plus means they're favored, and every number in a row is as of the date on the right.