Week 4

Every game this week, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 3.

The Games

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AWAY		HOME	LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)			EDGE VS MARKET		HOME WIN PROBABILITY			LOWFI/1 BETTING
AWAY		HOME	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	HOME COVER	PUSH	STAKE /100
NYJ	@	CHI	+9.2	+7.0	+3.0	+6.2	+4.0	76%	70%	59%	79%	5%	2.00
KC	@	LV	−1.6	+0.5	−6.0	+4.4	+6.5	46%	52%	31%	25%	3%	2.00
GB	@	TB	+2.7	+0.1	−1.5	+4.2	+1.6	58%	50%	48%	56%	0%	0.87
DEN	@	SF	+8.6	+3.5	+4.5	+4.1	−1.0	74%	60%	66%	85%	0%	2.00
IND	@	WAS	−0.4	+0.5	−4.5	+4.1	+5.0	49%	52%	36%	33%	0%	2.00
DAL	@	HOU	−0.8	+3.0	+3.0	−3.8	+0.0	48%	59%	59%	53%	8%	2.00
LA	@	PHI	+1.7	+3.4	−1.5	+3.2	+4.9	55%	60%	45%	53%	0%	0.79
DET	@	CAR	+0.1	+1.6	−3.0	+3.1	+4.6	50%	55%	42%	37%	9%	2.00
PIT	@	CLE	+0.0	−0.5	−3.0	+3.0	+2.5	50%	49%	43%	37%	9%	2.00
LAC	@	SEA	+8.8	+9.9	+6.5	+2.3	+3.4	74%	77%	71%	88%	0%	2.00
ATL	@	NO	+5.6	+2.7	+3.5	+2.1	−0.8	66%	58%	62%	77%	0%	2.00
MIA	@	MIN	+12.0	+8.5	+10.5	+1.5	−2.0	82%	74%	84%	96%	0%	2.00
NE	@	BUF	+6.5	+3.2	+5.5	+1.0	−2.3	69%	60%	69%	83%	0%	2.00
JAX	@	CIN	+2.2	+1.1	+3.0	−0.8	−1.9	57%	53%	59%	61%	7%	2.00
ARI	@	NYG	+3.2	+2.7	+2.5	+0.7	+0.2	60%	58%	55%	64%	0%	2.00
TEN	@	BAL	+10.3	+6.9	+10.5	−0.2	−3.6	78%	70%	82%	95%	0%	2.00

Projected Margins

Simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 4 games, 10,000 simulations each. CHI over NYJ in 74.6% of simulations, expected margin 9.4; KC over LV in 54.6% of simulations, expected margin 1.7; TB over GB in 57.8% of simulations, expected margin 2.8; SF over DEN in 72.9% of simulations, expected margin 8.8; IND over WAS in 51.2% of simulations, expected margin 0.5; DAL over HOU in 52.2% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; PHI over LA in 55.2% of simulations, expected margin 1.9; CAR over DET in 50.8% of simulations, expected margin 0.3; PIT over CLE in 50.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.0; SEA over LAC in 73.5% of simulations, expected margin 8.9; NO over ATL in 65.2% of simulations, expected margin 5.7; MIN over MIA in 79.6% of simulations, expected margin 12.0; BUF over NE in 67.2% of simulations, expected margin 6.2; CIN over JAX in 56.2% of simulations, expected margin 2.2; NYG over ARI in 58.2% of simulations, expected margin 3.0; BAL over TEN in 76.2% of simulations, expected margin 10.5.

Notes

The games

Every line and edge reads from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table opens sorted by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

Projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 simulated versions of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.