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Week 6

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 5.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +1.7 −3.1 −3.0 +4.7 −0.1 55% 41% 43% 42% 9% 1.78
@ +8.9 +8.8 +13.5 −4.6 −4.7 75% 74% 86% 95% 0% 2.00
@ +6.8 +9.3 +3.0 +3.8 +6.3 69% 76% 57% 73% 6% 2.00
@ +10.3 +12.8 +7.5 +2.8 +5.3 78% 83% 77% 93% 0% 2.00
@ −3.6 −4.0 −6.0 +2.4 +2.0 39% 38% 29% 20% 3% 2.00
@ +3.1 +5.6 +1.5 +1.6 +4.1 60% 66% 50% 62% 0% 2.00
@ −1.4 +2.1 −2.5 +1.1 +4.6 46% 56% 43% 41% 0% 2.00
@ +9.4 +9.6 +8.5 +0.9 +1.1 76% 76% 78% 93% 0% 2.00
@ −2.5 −1.5 −3.0 +0.5 +1.5 43% 46% 40% 30% 8% 2.00
@ +1.1 +5.4 +1.5 −0.4 +3.9 53% 66% 52% 55% 0% 2.00
@ +7.1 +9.9 +7.5 −0.4 +2.4 70% 77% 76% 89% 0% 2.00
@ −4.9 −0.3 −4.5 −0.4 +4.2 35% 49% 33% 22% 0% 2.00
@ +1.2 +2.3 +1.5 −0.3 +0.8 54% 57% 51% 56% 0% 2.00
@ +7.1 +8.9 +7.0 +0.1 +1.9 70% 74% 74% 86% 3% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 14 week 6 games, 10,000 simulations each. TB over PIT in 54.3% of simulations, expected margin 1.6; LA over ARI in 73.5% of simulations, expected margin 8.8; JAX over HOU in 68.8% of simulations, expected margin 6.9; SF over WAS in 77.2% of simulations, expected margin 10.4; BUF over LV in 60.8% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; NYG over NO in 59.5% of simulations, expected margin 3.3; SEA over DEN in 53.8% of simulations, expected margin 1.4; KC over LAC in 74.0% of simulations, expected margin 9.3; CHI over ATL in 57.3% of simulations, expected margin 2.6; GB over DAL in 52.0% of simulations, expected margin 0.9; NE over NYJ in 69.3% of simulations, expected margin 7.1; BAL over CLE in 63.7% of simulations, expected margin 4.8; PHI over CAR in 53.8% of simulations, expected margin 1.2; IND over TEN in 69.8% of simulations, expected margin 7.3.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 6 for the 28 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. NE 78% with a win, 52% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; LV 51% with a win, 25% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; LA 49% with a win, 23% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; GB 49% with a win, 23% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; DAL 52% with a win, 27% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; CHI 66% with a win, 42% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; CLE 40% with a win, 16% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; NYJ 36% with a win, 13% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; NYG 56% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; DEN 64% with a win, 41% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PIT 49% with a win, 28% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; CAR 67% with a win, 47% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; PHI 38% with a win, 18% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; IND 32% with a win, 13% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; HOU 29% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; ATL 36% with a win, 17% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; BAL 90% with a win, 71% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; SEA 73% with a win, 55% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; BUF 94% with a win, 79% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; WAS 21% with a win, 8% with a loss, a swing of 13 points; JAX 95% with a win, 83% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; TB 24% with a win, 12% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; NO 20% with a win, 8% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; KC 95% with a win, 84% with a loss, a swing of 11 points; SF 98% with a win, 92% with a loss, a swing of 6 points; ARI 5% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; LAC 4% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; TEN 1% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 1 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.