JD
AAAWgmp1bWIAAAAeanVtZGMycGEAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3EDYzJwYQAAABZcanVtYgAAAEdqdW1kYzJtYQARABCAAACqADibcQN1cm46YzJwYTpmNjljMWRjOS1jYjY3LTQ0NDEtOGQ0MS1jYWQyODlkMmRmMzkAAAADl2p1bWIAAAApanVtZGMyYXMAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3EDYzJwYS5hc3NlcnRpb25zAAAAALxqdW1iAAAARGp1bWRjYm9yABEAEIAAAKoAOJtxE2MycGEuaW5ncmVkaWVudC52MwAAAAAYYzJzaM5QnKpsdEnQrX+BBgZ9kd4AAABwY2JvcqNpZGM6Zm9ybWF0bWltYWdlL3N2Zyt4bWxqaW5zdGFuY2VJRHgseG1wOmlpZDpkOWY5MTU4MS1kMTQwLTRlNDItOTA4Yi0wMjY2NTZmMDBjY2VscmVsYXRpb25zaGlwaHBhcmVudE9mAAAB4mp1bWIAAABBanVtZGNib3IAEQAQgAAAqgA4m3ETYzJwYS5hY3Rpb25zLnYyAAAAABhjMnNo7uQ/NJoFcy0XPWCGOCL7YAAAAZljYm9yomdhY3Rpb25zgqJmYWN0aW9ua2MycGEub3BlbmVkanBhcmFtZXRlcnOha2luZ3JlZGllbnRzgaJjdXJseC1zZWxmI2p1bWJmPWMycGEuYXNzZXJ0aW9ucy9jMnBhLmluZ3JlZGllbnQudjNkaGFzaFggAx/cXKqNB4FJ8hihs66CwMShi8hlMxs4vu1kgUhsN92kZmFjdGlvbngdY29tLmFudGhyb3BpYy5jbGF1ZGUucHJvdmlkZWRqcGFyYW1ldGVyc6F4H2NvbS5hbnRocm9waWMub3JpZ2luLWNvbmZpZGVuY2VndW5rbm93bmtkZXNjcmlwdGlvbnhmQ2xhdWRlIHByb3ZpZGVkIHRoaXMgZmlsZSBhdCB0aGUgcmVxdWVzdCBvZiBhIHVzZXIgYW5kIG1heSBoYXZlIGNyZWF0ZWQgb3IgbW9kaWZpZWQgdGhlIGZpbGUgY29udGVudHMubXNvZnR3YXJlQWdlbnShZG5hbWVmQ2xhdWRlcmFsbEFjdGlvbnNJbmNsdWRlZPUAAADIanVtYgAAAEBqdW1kY2JvcgARABCAAACqADibcRNjMnBhLmhhc2guZGF0YQAAAAAYYzJzaOMuB3JEfdIzQptwGt2TP9YAAACAY2JvcqVjYWxnZnNoYTI1NmNwYWRNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGRoYXNoWCAsVGHEYJ3WeDMwVImqZzWJZI7uTEaNnVrJAIe16fAEnGRuYW1lbmp1bWJmIG1hbmlmZXN0amV4Y2x1c2lvbnOBomVzdGFydBibZmxlbmd0aBkeBAAAAj5qdW1iAAAAJ2p1bWRjMmNsABEAEIAAAKoAOJtxA2MycGEuY2xhaW0udjIAAAACD2Nib3KlY2FsZ2ZzaGEyNTZpc2lnbmF0dXJleE1zZWxmI2p1bWJmPS9jMnBhL3VybjpjMnBhOmY2OWMxZGM5LWNiNjctNDQ0MS04ZDQxLWNhZDI4OWQyZGYzOS9jMnBhLnNpZ25hdHVyZWppbnN0YW5jZUlEeCx4bXA6aWlkOjNhOGYwZTBhLTRhMWYtNGMxZi1hY2Y5LWRiNzM5OGM5MTY0NHJjcmVhdGVkX2Fzc2VydGlvbnODomN1cmx4LXNlbGYjanVtYmY9YzJwYS5hc3NlcnRpb25zL2MycGEuaW5ncmVkaWVudC52M2RoYXNoWCADH9xcqo0HgUnyGKGzroLAxKGLyGUzGzi+7WSBSGw33aJjdXJseCpzZWxmI2p1bWJmPWMycGEuYXNzZXJ0aW9ucy9jMnBhLmFjdGlvbnMudjJkaGFzaFgglhQ9opADZU56/EO+c6/sIe4x5mc/g7EoRUBJfaf2PlmiY3VybHgpc2VsZiNqdW1iZj1jMnBhLmFzc2VydGlvbnMvYzJwYS5oYXNoLmRhdGFkaGFzaFggTp5fT5f/kcO7ReM8rAWMroJxpXzvfJN6+Md3AFDHoKt0Y2xhaW1fZ2VuZXJhdG9yX2luZm+jZG5hbWVvQW50aHJvcGljIEZpbGVzZ3ZlcnNpb25lMS4wLjBrc3BlY1ZlcnNpb25lMi40LjAAABA4anVtYgAAAChqdW1kYzJjcwARABCAAACqADibcQNjMnBhLnNpZ25hdHVyZQAAABAIY2JvctKEWQISogEmGCFZAgowggIGMIIBjaADAgECAhRA5aAK7sI50L64g/oGQgU9Z1UTADAKBggqhkjOPQQDAzBJMRcwFQYDVQQKEw5BbnRocm9waWMsIFBCQzEuMCwGA1UEAxMlQW50aHJvcGljIENvbnRlbnQgQ3JlZGVudGlhbHMgUm9vdCBDQTAeFw0yNjA4MDcxODQzNTZaFw0yODA4MDYxOTQzNTZaMEQxFzAVBgNVBAoTDkFudGhyb3BpYywgUEJDMSkwJwYDVQQDEyBBbnRocm9waWMgQ2xhdWRlIENvbnRlbnQgU2lnbmluZzBZMBMGByqGSM49AgEGCCqGSM49AwEHA0IABJh6CmvLUBgFFNU0vUKlOVtE6djd17L5SuwX0LemFisBM3dkd/3cyjxFA3Qo5S46fX0/ihY0VZ7mfb9KF703t5OjWDBWMA4GA1UdDwEB/wQEAwIHgDAVBgNVHSUEDjAMBgorBgEEAYPoXgIBMAwGA1UdEwEB/wQCMAAwHwYDVR0jBBgwFoAUzlHiBIFOZFsj+OPEz5o+nMHXXMIwCgYIKoZIzj0EAwMDZwAwZAIwMXMdFJ4BetLLVY7ORuE9noqbbAZOZn/aArXyTwFAZfKrPzxF2vPoJNf1+UCdg1XGAjBwX1zd9WGqYkqmL5SFqw1QySjr1zJfpJM9+1rdDwSPLMOPOjKuiXjoU/pUUeG9RwmhY3BhZFkNngAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPZYQO2906GqFhDMRycbyu5WkrHeyc0Jjv4NlpYUuYSnnCTaAA4yh4Ax0UvsivX5lhkoxZi8lpf74kn8jnJUUtH5gG4=
Subscribe

Week 8

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 7.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +1.3 +0.4 +4.5 −3.2 −4.1 54% 51% 64% 69% 0% 2.00
@ +5.7 +7.7 +3.5 +2.2 +4.2 67% 72% 62% 77% 0% 2.00
@ +0.6 +0.4 −1.5 +2.1 +1.9 52% 52% 50% 50% 0% 0.70
@ +0.4 +4.8 −1.5 +1.9 +6.3 52% 64% 47% 49% 0% 0.00
@ +7.8 +4.4 +6.0 +1.8 −1.6 72% 63% 71% 85% 2% 2.00
@ +8.3 +8.0 +6.5 +1.8 +1.5 73% 73% 71% 88% 0% 2.00
@ +9.2 +9.0 +7.5 +1.7 +1.5 76% 75% 77% 92% 0% 2.00
@ −5.8 −6.1 −7.5 +1.7 +1.4 33% 33% 23% 13% 0% 2.00
@ +3.8 −0.0 +2.5 +1.3 −2.5 61% 50% 55% 66% 0% 2.00
@ +4.7 +4.1 +3.5 +1.2 +0.6 64% 62% 62% 75% 0% 2.00
@ +10.7 +9.6 +10.0 +0.7 −0.4 79% 77% 83% 94% 1% 2.00
@ +3.9 +3.3 +3.5 +0.4 −0.2 61% 60% 62% 72% 0% 2.00
@ +3.2 +2.0 +3.5 −0.3 −1.5 60% 56% 60% 71% 0% 2.00
@ +2.7 −1.6 +3.0 −0.3 −4.6 58% 46% 60% 63% 7% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 14 week 8 games, 10,000 simulations each. WAS over PHI in 53.3% of simulations, expected margin 1.2; BUF over BAL in 65.8% of simulations, expected margin 5.7; NYJ over LV in 51.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; DEN over KC in 51.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.4; DAL over ARI in 71.3% of simulations, expected margin 7.9; LA over LAC in 71.7% of simulations, expected margin 8.1; JAX over IND in 74.6% of simulations, expected margin 9.1; NE over MIA in 66.7% of simulations, expected margin 5.9; TB over ATL in 60.3% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; PIT over CLE in 63.8% of simulations, expected margin 4.6; CIN over TEN in 77.5% of simulations, expected margin 10.7; GB over CAR in 60.8% of simulations, expected margin 3.8; SEA over CHI in 59.0% of simulations, expected margin 3.2; DET over MIN in 58.4% of simulations, expected margin 2.9.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 8 for the 28 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. CLE 67% with a win, 35% with a loss, a swing of 32 points; PIT 73% with a win, 42% with a loss, a swing of 30 points; SEA 78% with a win, 50% with a loss, a swing of 28 points; NE 75% with a win, 49% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; ATL 47% with a win, 21% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; BAL 60% with a win, 34% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; TB 39% with a win, 14% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; GB 50% with a win, 26% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; CHI 87% with a win, 64% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; DET 84% with a win, 62% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; CAR 53% with a win, 31% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; DEN 85% with a win, 63% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; DAL 50% with a win, 29% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; CIN 88% with a win, 72% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; LV 27% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; JAX 94% with a win, 78% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; LA 33% with a win, 18% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; IND 19% with a win, 3% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; BUF 97% with a win, 85% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; KC 96% with a win, 84% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; PHI 12% with a win, 3% with a loss, a swing of 8 points; WAS 11% with a win, 3% with a loss, a swing of 8 points; MIN 98% with a win, 91% with a loss, a swing of 8 points; NYJ 10% with a win, 2% with a loss, a swing of 7 points; ARI 4% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 3 points; MIA 1% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 1 points; TEN 1% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 1 points; LAC 1% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 1 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.