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Week 2

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 1.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +2.8 +2.3 −1.5 +4.3 +3.8 58% 57% 47% 56% 0% 1.53
@ −1.6 +0.5 +2.5 −4.1 −2.0 46% 52% 55% 50% 0% 0.00
@ +9.0 +3.3 +5.5 +3.5 −2.2 75% 60% 68% 87% 0% 2.00
@ −1.1 +0.9 −4.5 +3.4 +5.4 47% 53% 36% 31% 0% 2.00
@ −3.9 −4.9 −7.0 +3.1 +2.1 38% 35% 28% 16% 4% 2.00
@ +4.1 +4.5 +7.0 −2.9 −2.5 62% 63% 75% 80% 4% 2.00
@ +4.6 +4.2 +7.0 −2.4 −2.8 63% 63% 73% 81% 4% 2.00
@ −2.8 −4.5 −4.5 +1.7 +0.0 42% 37% 34% 27% 0% 2.00
@ +6.8 +3.7 +8.5 −1.7 −4.8 69% 61% 77% 90% 0% 2.00
@ +4.3 +2.1 +5.5 −1.2 −3.4 63% 57% 67% 78% 0% 2.00
@ +2.5 +3.3 +3.5 −1.0 −0.2 57% 60% 66% 69% 0% 2.00
@ +11.6 +8.1 +12.5 −0.9 −4.4 81% 73% 87% 96% 0% 2.00
@ +3.6 +4.2 +4.5 −0.9 −0.3 60% 63% 66% 74% 0% 2.00
@ +2.3 +3.5 +3.0 −0.7 +0.5 57% 60% 57% 61% 7% 2.00
@ +7.2 +3.7 +6.5 +0.7 −2.8 71% 61% 72% 86% 0% 2.00
@ +8.3 +5.6 +8.5 −0.2 −2.9 73% 67% 77% 92% 0% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 2 games, 10,000 simulations each. ATL over CAR in 56.4% of simulations, expected margin 2.5; JAX over DEN in 54.4% of simulations, expected margin 1.7; CHI over MIN in 72.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.9; GB over NYJ in 52.6% of simulations, expected margin 1.0; PHI over TEN in 61.1% of simulations, expected margin 3.9; LA over NYG in 61.2% of simulations, expected margin 4.1; LAC over LV in 62.4% of simulations, expected margin 4.6; SEA over ARI in 58.0% of simulations, expected margin 2.7; TB over CLE in 68.4% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; NE over PIT in 61.7% of simulations, expected margin 4.2; DAL over WAS in 56.9% of simulations, expected margin 2.5; SF over MIA in 79.6% of simulations, expected margin 12.1; BUF over DET in 59.7% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; HOU over CIN in 56.5% of simulations, expected margin 2.3; KC over IND in 68.7% of simulations, expected margin 7.1; BAL over NO in 71.9% of simulations, expected margin 8.4.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 2 for the 32 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. NE 57% with a win, 30% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; SEA 75% with a win, 49% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; HOU 59% with a win, 34% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; MIN 78% with a win, 53% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; ARI 43% with a win, 19% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; PIT 57% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; DEN 47% with a win, 23% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; LV 43% with a win, 20% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; NYG 55% with a win, 32% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; CHI 93% with a win, 70% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; LA 41% with a win, 19% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; DET 73% with a win, 50% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; CIN 79% with a win, 56% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; IND 46% with a win, 24% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; LAC 38% with a win, 16% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; DAL 35% with a win, 13% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PHI 66% with a win, 45% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; WAS 36% with a win, 15% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; KC 86% with a win, 66% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; TB 53% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; JAX 81% with a win, 61% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; SF 77% with a win, 57% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; NO 51% with a win, 31% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; NYJ 41% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; ATL 27% with a win, 9% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; CAR 28% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; BAL 88% with a win, 72% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; BUF 84% with a win, 68% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; GB 34% with a win, 18% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; CLE 24% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 14 points; TEN 17% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 10 points; MIA 12% with a win, 4% with a loss, a swing of 8 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.