Week 2

Every game this week, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 1.

The Games

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AWAY		HOME	LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)			EDGE VS MARKET		HOME WIN PROBABILITY			LOWFI/1 BETTING
AWAY		HOME	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	HOME COVER	PUSH	STAKE /100
CAR	@	ATL	+2.8	+2.3	−1.5	+4.3	+3.8	58%	57%	47%	56%	0%	1.53
JAX	@	DEN	−1.6	+0.5	+2.5	−4.1	−2.0	46%	52%	55%	50%	0%	0.00
MIN	@	CHI	+9.0	+3.3	+5.5	+3.5	−2.2	75%	60%	68%	87%	0%	2.00
GB	@	NYJ	−1.1	+0.9	−4.5	+3.4	+5.4	47%	53%	36%	31%	0%	2.00
PHI	@	TEN	−3.9	−4.9	−7.0	+3.1	+2.1	38%	35%	28%	16%	4%	2.00
NYG	@	LA	+4.1	+4.5	+7.0	−2.9	−2.5	62%	63%	75%	80%	4%	2.00
LV	@	LAC	+4.6	+4.2	+7.0	−2.4	−2.8	63%	63%	73%	81%	4%	2.00
SEA	@	ARI	−2.8	−4.5	−4.5	+1.7	+0.0	42%	37%	34%	27%	0%	2.00
CLE	@	TB	+6.8	+3.7	+8.5	−1.7	−4.8	69%	61%	77%	90%	0%	2.00
PIT	@	NE	+4.3	+2.1	+5.5	−1.2	−3.4	63%	57%	67%	78%	0%	2.00
WAS	@	DAL	+2.5	+3.3	+3.5	−1.0	−0.2	57%	60%	66%	69%	0%	2.00
MIA	@	SF	+11.6	+8.1	+12.5	−0.9	−4.4	81%	73%	87%	96%	0%	2.00
DET	@	BUF	+3.6	+4.2	+4.5	−0.9	−0.3	60%	63%	66%	74%	0%	2.00
CIN	@	HOU	+2.3	+3.5	+3.0	−0.7	+0.5	57%	60%	57%	61%	7%	2.00
IND	@	KC	+7.2	+3.7	+6.5	+0.7	−2.8	71%	61%	72%	86%	0%	2.00
NO	@	BAL	+8.3	+5.6	+8.5	−0.2	−2.9	73%	67%	77%	92%	0%	2.00

Projected Margins

Simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 2 games, 10,000 simulations each. ATL over CAR in 56.4% of simulations, expected margin 2.5; JAX over DEN in 54.4% of simulations, expected margin 1.7; CHI over MIN in 72.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.9; GB over NYJ in 52.6% of simulations, expected margin 1.0; PHI over TEN in 61.1% of simulations, expected margin 3.9; LA over NYG in 61.2% of simulations, expected margin 4.1; LAC over LV in 62.4% of simulations, expected margin 4.6; SEA over ARI in 58.0% of simulations, expected margin 2.7; TB over CLE in 68.4% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; NE over PIT in 61.7% of simulations, expected margin 4.2; DAL over WAS in 56.9% of simulations, expected margin 2.5; SF over MIA in 79.6% of simulations, expected margin 12.1; BUF over DET in 59.7% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; HOU over CIN in 56.5% of simulations, expected margin 2.3; KC over IND in 68.7% of simulations, expected margin 7.1; BAL over NO in 71.9% of simulations, expected margin 8.4.

Notes

The games

Every line and edge reads from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table opens sorted by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

Projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 simulated versions of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.