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Week 4

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 3.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +11.3 +9.0 +3.5 +7.8 +5.5 80% 75% 62% 88% 0% 2.00
@ +2.3 −0.5 −4.5 +6.8 +4.0 57% 49% 36% 41% 0% 2.00
@ +3.1 +4.2 −1.5 +4.6 +5.7 59% 63% 49% 56% 0% 1.27
@ +0.9 +1.4 −3.5 +4.4 +4.9 52% 54% 38% 39% 0% 2.00
@ +6.7 +3.0 +3.0 +3.7 −0.0 69% 59% 58% 73% 6% 2.00
@ −1.4 +0.7 −4.5 +3.1 +5.2 46% 52% 34% 30% 0% 2.00
@ −0.2 −1.3 +2.5 −2.7 −3.8 49% 46% 56% 54% 0% 0.00
@ +0.1 −0.4 −2.5 +2.6 +2.1 50% 49% 43% 45% 0% 0.00
@ −0.1 +2.8 +2.5 −2.6 +0.3 50% 58% 56% 55% 0% 0.00
@ −0.6 +3.0 −3.0 +2.4 +6.0 49% 59% 42% 35% 9% 2.00
@ +5.0 +1.6 +3.0 +2.0 −1.4 65% 55% 58% 69% 7% 2.00
@ −1.7 −0.6 −3.5 +1.8 +2.9 45% 49% 39% 32% 0% 2.00
@ +8.2 +8.9 +7.0 +1.2 +1.9 73% 75% 75% 88% 3% 2.00
@ +10.4 +8.9 +11.5 −1.1 −2.6 78% 75% 84% 96% 0% 2.00
@ +7.9 +5.2 +7.0 +0.9 −1.8 73% 65% 72% 87% 3% 2.00
@ +11.6 +10.2 +11.5 +0.1 −1.3 81% 78% 85% 96% 0% 2.00

Projected Margins

Simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 4 games, 10,000 simulations each. CHI over NYJ in 78.7% of simulations, expected margin 11.5; TB over GB in 56.4% of simulations, expected margin 2.2; NYG over ARI in 59.2% of simulations, expected margin 3.1; WAS over IND in 51.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; SF over DEN in 69.0% of simulations, expected margin 7.1; KC over LV in 54.1% of simulations, expected margin 1.3; JAX over CIN in 50.9% of simulations, expected margin 0.4; CLE over PIT in 50.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.3; HOU over DAL in 50.2% of simulations, expected margin 0.1; LA over PHI in 51.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.5; NO over ATL in 63.9% of simulations, expected margin 5.0; DET over CAR in 54.7% of simulations, expected margin 1.6; SEA over LAC in 71.1% of simulations, expected margin 8.2; BAL over TEN in 76.7% of simulations, expected margin 10.6; BUF over NE in 70.8% of simulations, expected margin 7.7; MIN over MIA in 79.1% of simulations, expected margin 11.7.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

Projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 simulated versions of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.