Week 3

Every game this week, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 2.

The Games

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AWAY		HOME	LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)			EDGE VS MARKET		HOME WIN PROBABILITY			LOWFI/1 BETTING
AWAY		HOME	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	HOME COVER	PUSH	STAKE /100
PHI	@	CHI	+6.7	+0.3	−3.0	+9.7	+3.3	69%	51%	38%	56%	8%	2.00
HOU	@	IND	+1.9	−0.1	−2.5	+4.4	+2.4	55%	49%	44%	50%	0%	0.00
KC	@	MIA	−8.2	−1.9	−11.5	+3.3	+9.6	27%	44%	14%	6%	0%	2.00
BAL	@	DAL	−0.2	+1.9	−3.0	+2.8	+4.9	49%	56%	42%	36%	9%	2.00
SEA	@	WAS	−4.2	−7.8	−7.0	+2.8	−0.8	38%	28%	28%	16%	4%	2.00
ARI	@	SF	+10.6	+9.2	+8.5	+2.1	+0.7	78%	76%	80%	94%	0%	2.00
LAC	@	BUF	+9.0	+8.6	+7.0	+2.0	+1.6	75%	74%	74%	89%	3%	2.00
ATL	@	GB	+7.8	+5.5	+6.0	+1.8	−0.5	72%	66%	71%	85%	2%	2.00
LA	@	DEN	−0.7	+3.1	−2.5	+1.8	+5.6	48%	60%	45%	43%	0%	2.00
NYJ	@	DET	+7.8	+5.9	+6.5	+1.3	−0.6	72%	67%	72%	87%	0%	2.00
CAR	@	CLE	−1.4	+0.8	−2.5	+1.1	+3.3	46%	52%	43%	42%	0%	2.00
CIN	@	PIT	−2.4	+2.2	−3.5	+1.1	+5.7	43%	57%	38%	30%	0%	2.00
MIN	@	TB	−0.4	−3.8	−1.5	+1.1	−2.3	49%	39%	48%	46%	0%	0.82
NE	@	JAX	+3.6	+0.9	+3.0	+0.6	−2.1	60%	53%	60%	65%	7%	2.00
TEN	@	NYG	+3.3	+5.4	+3.5	−0.2	+1.9	60%	66%	61%	71%	0%	2.00
LV	@	NO	+3.0	+1.9	+3.0	−0.0	−1.1	59%	56%	61%	63%	7%	2.00

Projected Margins

Simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 3 games, 10,000 simulations each. CHI over PHI in 67.9% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; IND over HOU in 55.1% of simulations, expected margin 1.9; KC over MIA in 71.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.0; BAL over DAL in 51.0% of simulations, expected margin 0.2; SEA over WAS in 61.8% of simulations, expected margin 4.2; SF over ARI in 77.3% of simulations, expected margin 10.6; BUF over LAC in 72.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.7; GB over ATL in 70.9% of simulations, expected margin 8.0; LA over DEN in 51.3% of simulations, expected margin 0.6; DET over NYJ in 70.8% of simulations, expected margin 7.8; CAR over CLE in 53.7% of simulations, expected margin 1.4; CIN over PIT in 57.0% of simulations, expected margin 2.4; MIN over TB in 51.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.4; JAX over NE in 59.2% of simulations, expected margin 3.3; NYG over TEN in 59.6% of simulations, expected margin 3.4; NO over LV in 58.8% of simulations, expected margin 3.2.

Notes

The games

Every line and edge reads from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table opens sorted by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

Projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 simulated versions of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.