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Week 3

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 2.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +6.7 +0.3 −3.0 +9.7 +3.3 69% 51% 38% 56% 8% 2.00
@ +1.9 −0.1 −2.5 +4.4 +2.4 55% 49% 44% 50% 0% 0.00
@ −8.2 −1.9 −11.5 +3.3 +9.6 27% 44% 14% 6% 0% 2.00
@ −0.2 +1.9 −3.0 +2.8 +4.9 49% 56% 42% 36% 9% 2.00
@ −4.2 −7.8 −7.0 +2.8 −0.8 38% 28% 28% 16% 4% 2.00
@ +10.6 +9.2 +8.5 +2.1 +0.7 78% 76% 80% 94% 0% 2.00
@ +9.0 +8.6 +7.0 +2.0 +1.6 75% 74% 74% 89% 3% 2.00
@ +7.8 +5.5 +6.0 +1.8 −0.5 72% 66% 71% 85% 2% 2.00
@ −0.7 +3.1 −2.5 +1.8 +5.6 48% 60% 45% 43% 0% 2.00
@ +7.8 +5.9 +6.5 +1.3 −0.6 72% 67% 72% 87% 0% 2.00
@ −1.4 +0.8 −2.5 +1.1 +3.3 46% 52% 43% 42% 0% 2.00
@ −2.4 +2.2 −3.5 +1.1 +5.7 43% 57% 38% 30% 0% 2.00
@ −0.4 −3.8 −1.5 +1.1 −2.3 49% 39% 48% 46% 0% 0.82
@ +3.6 +0.9 +3.0 +0.6 −2.1 60% 53% 60% 65% 7% 2.00
@ +3.3 +5.4 +3.5 −0.2 +1.9 60% 66% 61% 71% 0% 2.00
@ +3.0 +1.9 +3.0 −0.0 −1.1 59% 56% 61% 63% 7% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 3 games, 10,000 simulations each. CHI over PHI in 67.9% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; IND over HOU in 55.1% of simulations, expected margin 1.9; KC over MIA in 71.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.0; BAL over DAL in 51.0% of simulations, expected margin 0.2; SEA over WAS in 61.8% of simulations, expected margin 4.2; SF over ARI in 77.3% of simulations, expected margin 10.6; BUF over LAC in 72.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.7; GB over ATL in 70.9% of simulations, expected margin 8.0; LA over DEN in 51.3% of simulations, expected margin 0.6; DET over NYJ in 70.8% of simulations, expected margin 7.8; CAR over CLE in 53.7% of simulations, expected margin 1.4; CIN over PIT in 57.0% of simulations, expected margin 2.4; MIN over TB in 51.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.4; JAX over NE in 59.2% of simulations, expected margin 3.3; NYG over TEN in 59.6% of simulations, expected margin 3.4; NO over LV in 58.8% of simulations, expected margin 3.2.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 3 for the 32 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. CHI 80% with a win, 51% with a loss, a swing of 28 points; IND 44% with a win, 17% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; HOU 45% with a win, 21% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; MIN 77% with a win, 53% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; SF 86% with a win, 63% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; NE 70% with a win, 47% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; JAX 75% with a win, 52% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PHI 80% with a win, 58% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PIT 39% with a win, 17% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; LA 59% with a win, 37% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; DEN 53% with a win, 32% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; DAL 51% with a win, 30% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; LV 61% with a win, 40% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; DET 65% with a win, 44% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; NO 59% with a win, 38% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; TB 37% with a win, 17% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; SEA 80% with a win, 60% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; NYJ 39% with a win, 19% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; CIN 89% with a win, 70% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; CAR 51% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; GB 33% with a win, 15% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; LAC 27% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; KC 89% with a win, 71% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; BAL 78% with a win, 61% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; CLE 33% with a win, 16% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; NYG 31% with a win, 15% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; BUF 92% with a win, 77% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; ARI 21% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 14 points; WAS 21% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 14 points; TEN 15% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 9 points; ATL 8% with a win, 3% with a loss, a swing of 6 points; MIA 7% with a win, 2% with a loss, a swing of 5 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.