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Week 5

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 4.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ −3.0 +0.3 +3.0 −6.0 −2.7 41% 51% 58% 46% 8% 0.00
@ −1.3 −2.1 −6.5 +5.2 +4.4 46% 44% 27% 26% 0% 2.00
@ +0.5 −4.5 −3.5 +4.0 −1.0 52% 37% 38% 38% 0% 2.00
@ −0.3 +3.5 +2.5 −2.8 +1.0 49% 60% 55% 54% 0% 0.00
@ +5.9 +6.0 +8.5 −2.6 −2.5 67% 67% 79% 89% 0% 2.00
@ −5.5 −1.6 −3.0 −2.5 +1.4 34% 46% 43% 23% 7% 2.00
@ +0.8 −0.9 +3.0 −2.2 −3.9 52% 48% 60% 57% 8% 2.00
@ +0.7 +0.7 +2.5 −1.8 −1.8 52% 52% 57% 57% 0% 1.55
@ +1.9 +6.7 +3.5 −1.6 +3.2 56% 69% 63% 68% 0% 2.00
@ +8.0 +5.9 +6.5 +1.5 −0.6 73% 67% 71% 87% 0% 2.00
@ +1.7 +1.0 +3.0 −1.3 −2.0 55% 53% 60% 60% 7% 2.00
@ +1.9 −3.0 +2.5 −0.6 −5.5 56% 41% 54% 61% 0% 2.00
@ −4.2 −2.2 −4.5 +0.3 +2.3 38% 43% 34% 23% 0% 2.00
@ −1.8 −5.5 −1.5 −0.3 −4.0 45% 34% 46% 42% 0% 1.91
@ −7.0 −1.9 −7.0 +0.0 +5.1 30% 45% 26% 11% 3% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 15 week 5 games, 10,000 simulations each. BAL over ATL in 59.0% of simulations, expected margin 3.0; HOU over TEN in 53.9% of simulations, expected margin 1.5; LAC over DEN in 50.6% of simulations, expected margin 0.3; IND over PIT in 51.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.5; DAL over TB in 65.5% of simulations, expected margin 5.6; CHI over GB in 65.5% of simulations, expected margin 5.5; WAS over NYG in 52.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.9; LA over BUF in 52.0% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; NE over LV in 55.5% of simulations, expected margin 2.1; JAX over PHI in 72.4% of simulations, expected margin 8.2; SEA over SF in 55.8% of simulations, expected margin 2.0; NYJ over CLE in 55.4% of simulations, expected margin 2.0; DET over ARI in 62.0% of simulations, expected margin 4.4; MIN over NO in 54.8% of simulations, expected margin 1.7; CIN over MIA in 69.1% of simulations, expected margin 6.9.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 5 for the 30 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. IND 58% with a win, 32% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; NE 63% with a win, 37% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; NYG 53% with a win, 28% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; LV 73% with a win, 48% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; DEN 54% with a win, 29% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; CIN 64% with a win, 40% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; SEA 81% with a win, 57% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; DET 60% with a win, 37% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; LA 59% with a win, 37% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; CLE 51% with a win, 29% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PIT 34% with a win, 14% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; DAL 61% with a win, 40% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; PHI 47% with a win, 27% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; GB 29% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; CHI 90% with a win, 71% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; ATL 42% with a win, 23% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; NO 31% with a win, 14% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; MIN 88% with a win, 73% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; NYJ 24% with a win, 9% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; BAL 86% with a win, 71% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; JAX 93% with a win, 80% with a loss, a swing of 13 points; BUF 91% with a win, 79% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; WAS 16% with a win, 4% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; SF 96% with a win, 85% with a loss, a swing of 11 points; TB 17% with a win, 6% with a loss, a swing of 11 points; HOU 14% with a win, 4% with a loss, a swing of 10 points; LAC 10% with a win, 2% with a loss, a swing of 7 points; ARI 8% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 7 points; TEN 5% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; MIA 3% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 2 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.