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Week 7

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 6.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ +0.4 +4.2 −4.5 +4.9 +8.7 52% 63% 34% 36% 0% 2.00
@ +5.2 +3.2 +10.0 −4.8 −6.8 65% 60% 80% 88% 2% 2.00
@ −0.1 +0.2 −4.5 +4.4 +4.7 50% 51% 34% 34% 0% 2.00
@ +0.2 −2.8 −3.5 +3.7 +0.7 51% 42% 38% 37% 0% 2.00
@ +5.8 +1.4 +3.0 +2.8 −1.6 67% 55% 60% 71% 6% 2.00
@ −2.2 −6.1 −4.5 +2.3 −1.6 43% 33% 32% 28% 0% 2.00
@ +6.5 +4.3 +4.5 +2.0 −0.2 69% 63% 67% 81% 0% 2.00
@ +0.8 +1.6 +2.5 −1.7 −0.9 52% 55% 55% 57% 0% 2.00
@ +0.1 −4.7 −1.5 +1.6 −3.2 51% 36% 48% 48% 0% 0.00
@ +4.8 +7.4 +3.5 +1.3 +3.9 64% 71% 63% 75% 0% 2.00
@ −4.7 −7.6 −3.5 −1.2 −4.1 36% 28% 36% 24% 0% 2.00
@ +3.3 +3.7 +2.5 +0.8 +1.2 60% 61% 57% 64% 0% 2.00
@ +3.7 +0.2 +3.0 +0.7 −2.8 61% 51% 57% 66% 7% 2.00
@ +6.9 +10.0 +6.5 +0.4 +3.5 70% 77% 71% 86% 0% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 14 week 7 games, 10,000 simulations each. PHI over DAL in 51.1% of simulations, expected margin 0.3; HOU over NYG in 64.2% of simulations, expected margin 5.0; LA over LV in 50.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.1; NO over PIT in 50.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.2; DET over GB in 65.6% of simulations, expected margin 5.8; DEN over ARI in 56.8% of simulations, expected margin 2.3; NYJ over MIA in 68.1% of simulations, expected margin 6.4; SEA over KC in 51.8% of simulations, expected margin 0.8; TEN over CLE in 50.2% of simulations, expected margin 0.0; CAR over TB in 63.8% of simulations, expected margin 4.9; SF over ATL in 63.7% of simulations, expected margin 4.8; BAL over CIN in 59.4% of simulations, expected margin 3.4; CHI over NE in 60.2% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; MIN over IND in 68.9% of simulations, expected margin 7.0.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 7 for the 28 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. GB 70% with a win, 43% with a loss, a swing of 28 points; DAL 47% with a win, 20% with a loss, a swing of 28 points; BAL 78% with a win, 50% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; CIN 75% with a win, 49% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; DET 83% with a win, 57% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; PHI 37% with a win, 12% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; CAR 80% with a win, 56% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; NYG 57% with a win, 34% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; CLE 46% with a win, 25% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PIT 57% with a win, 37% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; DEN 67% with a win, 48% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; CHI 78% with a win, 58% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; SEA 65% with a win, 46% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; NE 85% with a win, 68% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; LV 36% with a win, 19% with a loss, a swing of 18 points; HOU 35% with a win, 18% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; LA 33% with a win, 16% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; ATL 26% with a win, 11% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; TB 19% with a win, 4% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; NO 27% with a win, 14% with a loss, a swing of 13 points; IND 21% with a win, 8% with a loss, a swing of 12 points; NYJ 16% with a win, 5% with a loss, a swing of 11 points; MIN 95% with a win, 87% with a loss, a swing of 8 points; ARI 8% with a win, 2% with a loss, a swing of 6 points; KC 98% with a win, 94% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; SF 99% with a win, 97% with a loss, a swing of 3 points; TEN 2% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 2 points; MIA 1% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 1 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.