Ratings

Every team, rated by both models, 2026, through week 3.

Power Ratings

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TEAM	LOWFI/1						CURRENT PERFORMANCE
TEAM	NET	RANK	OFFENSE	OFF RANK	DEFENSE	DEF RANK	OFF RANK	DEF RANK
BUF	+4.37	1	+4.85	1	−0.48	19	1	29
CHI	+4.06	2	+4.11	2	−0.05	16	5	16
SF	+3.80	3	+2.17	6	+1.63	4	5	3
KC	+2.96	4	+2.29	4	+0.67	8	3	11
SEA	+2.83	5	+0.79	11	+2.03	2	17	2
BAL	+2.74	6	+2.25	5	+0.49	13	7	18
JAX	+2.28	7	+0.78	12	+1.50	5	15	6
CIN	+2.18	8	+1.61	9	+0.57	9	11	9
DET	+2.01	9	+2.88	3	−0.88	26	5	31
MIN	+1.69	10	−0.49	17	+2.18	1	14	4
LA	+1.52	11	+0.41	14	+1.11	6	22	9
DAL	+1.37	12	+2.10	7	−0.73	22	8	20
PHI	+1.00	13	+0.46	13	+0.54	10	14	12
NE	+0.46	14	−1.47	21	+1.93	3	28	1
CAR	+0.34	15	+1.68	8	−1.34	30	2	29
IND	−0.25	16	+1.19	10	−1.44	31	11	32
LV	−0.34	17	−0.49	18	+0.15	15	11	5
NO	−0.43	18	−0.11	16	−0.33	17	9	20
TB	−0.79	19	+0.10	15	−0.90	27	16	24
DEN	−1.13	20	−1.93	24	+0.79	7	28	13
HOU	−1.37	21	−1.60	22	+0.24	14	21	24
GB	−1.38	22	−0.59	19	−0.80	24	20	26
NYJ	−1.85	23	−2.38	26	+0.53	11	19	6
LAC	−2.07	24	−1.74	23	−0.33	18	30	22
WAS	−2.30	25	−0.96	20	−1.34	29	18	27
PIT	−2.71	26	−3.24	30	+0.53	12	32	9
NYG	−2.80	27	−2.15	25	−0.65	21	24	20
ATL	−3.42	28	−2.83	28	−0.59	20	24	15
TEN	−3.79	29	−2.64	27	−1.15	28	28	18
ARI	−3.84	30	−3.01	29	−0.84	25	26	14
CLE	−4.08	31	−3.29	31	−0.78	23	26	23
MIA	−5.80	32	−4.09	32	−1.71	32	31	29

TEAM	LOWFI/0		CURRENT PERFORMANCE
TEAM	TRUE STRENGTH	RANK	WIN PCT	PYTHAG PCT	OFF RANK	DEF RANK
SEA	67.6%± 13.2	1	100.0%	90.5%	17	2
BUF	64.0%± 13.0	2	100.0%	62.6%	1	29
SF	63.4%± 13.3	3	100.0%	93.6%	5	3
NE	61.0%± 13.6	4	50.0%	81.6%	28	1
PHI	60.6%± 14.1	5	100.0%	57.8%	14	12
DEN	59.7%± 13.5	6	50.0%	28.7%	28	13
MIN	59.5%± 13.7	7	100.0%	82.4%	14	4
JAX	56.9%± 13.7	8	50.0%	74.3%	15	6
LA	56.8%± 13.8	9	50.0%	53.5%	22	9
CHI	54.7%± 13.6	10	50.0%	67.0%	5	16
CIN	53.3%± 13.6	11	100.0%	75.5%	11	9
PIT	53.1%± 13.9	12	50.0%	29.8%	32	9
KC	52.9%± 14.1	13	100.0%	75.3%	3	11
DET	51.2%± 13.7	14	50.0%	42.0%	5	31
HOU	49.2%± 14.1	15	0.0%	27.2%	21	24
CAR	49.0%± 14.1	16	50.0%	58.0%	2	29
BAL	47.8%± 14.0	17	50.0%	62.2%	7	18
LV	47.3%± 13.8	18	100.0%	83.2%	11	5
GB	47.0%± 13.4	19	33.3%	24.0%	20	26
DAL	46.7%± 13.9	20	50.0%	60.0%	8	20
NO	46.4%± 13.7	21	50.0%	56.9%	9	20
ATL	45.0%± 13.7	22	33.3%	33.6%	24	15
CLE	44.3%± 13.8	23	50.0%	24.5%	26	23
LAC	43.9%± 13.5	24	0.0%	18.7%	30	22
NYG	43.0%± 13.6	25	50.0%	30.6%	24	20
IND	41.7%± 13.1	26	0.0%	31.2%	11	32
ARI	41.5%± 13.9	27	50.0%	32.4%	26	14
TB	40.3%± 13.8	28	0.0%	38.6%	16	24
MIA	39.7%± 13.7	29	0.0%	11.3%	31	29
NYJ	39.7%± 13.3	30	50.0%	66.4%	19	6
WAS	36.6%± 13.2	31	0.0%	29.2%	18	27
TEN	33.5%± 13.0	32	0.0%	25.7%	28	18

Projections

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TEAM	DIVISION	PROJECTED WINS	PROJECTED POINT DIFF	MAKE POST	WIN DIV	NO.1 SEED	WIN CONF	WIN SB	NO.1 PICK	TOP-5 PICK
SF	NFC West	11.7	+113	85%	52%	28%	21%	10%	0%	0%
BUF	AFC East	11.5	+83	88%	70%	27%	23%	14%	0%	1%
CIN	AFC North	11.2	+79	83%	52%	20%	14%	8%	0%	1%
KC	AFC West	10.9	+68	82%	58%	18%	16%	9%	0%	1%
SEA	NFC West	10.9	+74	73%	35%	16%	14%	6%	0%	1%
MIN	NFC North	10.6	+62	71%	38%	12%	11%	5%	0%	1%
CHI	NFC North	10.4	+83	68%	33%	11%	14%	7%	0%	2%
BAL	AFC North	10.2	+76	73%	37%	11%	12%	7%	0%	2%
PHI	NFC East	10.1	+32	65%	51%	9%	8%	3%	0%	3%
JAX	AFC South	9.9	+65	71%	60%	7%	12%	7%	0%	3%
DET	NFC North	9.9	+35	58%	25%	7%	8%	3%	0%	3%
LV	AFC West	9.3	+19	58%	27%	6%	5%	3%	0%	5%
DAL	NFC East	9.2	+33	50%	32%	4%	6%	2%	1%	6%
LA	NFC West	9.1	+24	46%	11%	4%	5%	2%	0%	4%
NO	NFC South	9.0	+20	49%	40%	3%	4%	1%	1%	7%
NE	AFC East	8.8	+30	52%	20%	4%	5%	3%	1%	6%
CAR	NFC South	8.7	+13	47%	38%	3%	4%	1%	1%	8%
DEN	AFC West	8.0	−30	37%	12%	2%	3%	1%	1%	12%
IND	AFC South	7.7	−16	33%	20%	1%	3%	2%	3%	19%
NYJ	AFC East	7.7	−16	32%	9%	1%	2%	1%	3%	19%
NYG	NFC East	7.3	−62	20%	12%	1%	1%	0%	3%	21%
PIT	AFC North	7.3	−52	24%	7%	1%	1%	0%	3%	21%
HOU	AFC South	7.1	−28	25%	15%	0%	2%	1%	5%	26%
TB	NFC South	7.1	−25	23%	16%	1%	2%	0%	4%	24%
GB	NFC North	7.0	−73	13%	3%	0%	1%	0%	3%	22%
CLE	AFC North	6.8	−79	17%	4%	0%	1%	0%	5%	30%
WAS	NFC East	6.5	−53	12%	6%	0%	1%	0%	7%	32%
ARI	NFC West	6.3	−84	9%	1%	0%	0%	0%	5%	31%
ATL	NFC South	6.2	−83	11%	6%	0%	0%	0%	5%	32%
LAC	AFC West	6.0	−70	12%	3%	0%	1%	0%	9%	37%
TEN	AFC South	5.5	−90	9%	5%	0%	0%	0%	15%	52%
MIA	AFC East	4.3	−151	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%	25%	67%

TEAM	DIVISION	PROJECTED WINS	PROJECTED POINT DIFF	MAKE POST	WIN DIV	NO.1 SEED	WIN CONF	WIN SB	NO.1 PICK	TOP-5 PICK
SEA	NFC West	11.7	+107	82%	48%	25%	22%	11%	0%	1%
BUF	AFC East	11.3	+77	82%	57%	25%	20%	11%	0%	1%
SF	NFC West	11.2	+97	76%	37%	20%	15%	8%	0%	1%
MIN	NFC North	11.0	+77	76%	53%	16%	13%	6%	0%	2%
PHI	NFC East	11.0	+65	76%	64%	16%	14%	7%	0%	2%
CIN	AFC North	10.4	+58	70%	43%	14%	10%	5%	0%	3%
NE	AFC East	9.8	+66	65%	32%	12%	13%	7%	0%	4%
JAX	AFC South	9.8	+66	67%	56%	9%	10%	6%	1%	5%
DEN	AFC West	9.5	+23	61%	34%	9%	11%	6%	0%	5%
KC	AFC West	9.5	+23	61%	35%	9%	8%	4%	0%	5%
PIT	AFC North	9.1	+9	51%	25%	6%	7%	3%	1%	7%
LA	NFC West	9.0	+25	46%	11%	4%	6%	3%	0%	7%
DET	NFC North	9.0	+5	47%	21%	4%	5%	2%	1%	9%
CHI	NFC North	8.9	+32	46%	18%	4%	6%	2%	1%	7%
LV	AFC West	8.8	+0	49%	26%	5%	5%	2%	1%	8%
NO	NFC South	8.5	+5	43%	34%	2%	3%	1%	2%	12%
BAL	AFC North	8.3	+5	40%	17%	4%	4%	2%	2%	13%
CAR	NFC South	8.3	+1	42%	33%	3%	4%	2%	1%	12%
CLE	AFC North	8.2	−31	38%	15%	3%	3%	2%	2%	15%
DAL	NFC East	8.1	−7	35%	18%	2%	3%	1%	2%	15%
NYG	NFC East	7.8	−49	29%	15%	1%	2%	1%	3%	18%
HOU	AFC South	7.8	−8	36%	25%	1%	4%	2%	4%	20%
ATL	NFC South	7.6	−32	31%	21%	1%	2%	1%	3%	18%
GB	NFC North	7.5	−53	24%	8%	1%	2%	1%	2%	17%
ARI	NFC West	7.0	−60	19%	3%	1%	1%	0%	3%	23%
NYJ	AFC East	6.8	−51	21%	6%	1%	2%	1%	5%	30%
IND	AFC South	6.6	−55	20%	13%	0%	1%	0%	8%	33%
TB	NFC South	6.4	−49	19%	13%	1%	1%	1%	9%	36%
LAC	AFC West	6.0	−72	15%	5%	1%	1%	1%	9%	37%
MIA	AFC East	5.8	−101	13%	4%	1%	1%	1%	10%	39%
WAS	NFC East	5.8	−78	10%	3%	0%	1%	0%	11%	41%
TEN	AFC South	5.4	−96	11%	7%	0%	1%	0%	19%	54%

Over Time

Ratings Over Time

LOWFI/1 net rating by week for all 32 teams, preseason to week 3, in one panel per division. Biggest rises: LV +3.3, CHI +3.3, CAR +2.7. Biggest drops: LAC −3.5, GB −3.1, HOU −2.3.

Ranks Over Time

Rank by LOWFI/1 net rating each week, preseason to week 3. Top five now: BUF, CHI, SF, KC, SEA. Biggest climbs: CHI from 16 to 2, LV from 30 to 17, CAR from 27 to 15.

Notes

LOWFI/1 power ratings

LOWFI/1 reads scores, not just results, and adjusts for who each team has played. The raw scoring ranks sit beside the model's, and the gap between them is the opponent adjustment at work.

LOWFI/0 true strength

LOWFI/0 is the original model, and it only sees wins and losses. True strength is its estimate of how often a team beats an average opponent, and the number beneath it is how much it still doesn't know. Win percentage and Pythagorean percentage are what's actually happened so far, for comparison - Pythagorean is what the points scored and allowed say the record should be.

Projections

Both models run through the same simulation engine and the same color scales, so a cell in one table compares directly with the same cell in the other. Projected point differential is the differential so far plus the average of every simulated game still to play.

Over time

Every point is what that Tuesday's run said, before that week's games - nothing is refit after the fact. The panels are grouped by conference and division, and the rank chart follows each team's place among all 32 from week to week.