Ratings

How each LOWFI model rates each team, 2026, through week 8.

Power Ratings

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TEAM	LOWFI/1						CURRENT PERFORMANCE
TEAM	NET	RANK	OFFENSE	OFF RANK	DEFENSE	DEF RANK	OFF RANK	DEF RANK
JAX	+5.19	1	+2.71	4	+2.48	2	5	2
BUF	+4.93	2	+5.59	1	−0.66	22	1	24
CHI	+3.48	3	+2.46	6	+1.02	8	8	8
CIN	+3.42	4	+3.65	2	−0.23	15	2	14
SF	+3.22	5	+2.40	7	+0.82	10	4	6
DET	+2.50	6	+3.13	3	−0.63	21	3	23
LA	+1.95	7	+1.36	9	+0.59	12	10	12
KC	+1.93	8	+0.61	10	+1.32	4	11	4
SEA	+1.90	9	+0.56	11	+1.34	3	15	7
MIN	+1.53	10	−2.00	27	+3.52	1	27	1
NE	+0.92	11	−0.03	14	+0.95	9	16	9
DAL	+0.89	12	+2.55	5	−1.66	28	7	27
TB	+0.66	13	−0.44	18	+1.09	7	20	5
PIT	+0.65	14	−0.61	21	+1.26	6	18	3
DEN	+0.64	15	−0.65	22	+1.29	5	22	11
GB	+0.24	16	−0.55	19	+0.79	11	24	10
HOU	−0.01	17	−0.22	15	+0.21	13	12	18
LV	−0.29	18	+1.95	8	−2.24	32	6	31
BAL	−0.49	19	+0.03	13	−0.52	18	19	22
NYG	−1.18	20	−0.39	16	−0.79	23	13	15
CAR	−1.39	21	+0.26	12	−1.65	27	9	28
WAS	−1.60	22	−0.40	17	−1.20	24	17	26
ATL	−1.92	23	−1.48	25	−0.44	16	24	17
NYJ	−2.14	24	−1.51	26	−0.62	20	25	16
NO	−2.27	25	−0.59	20	−1.68	29	14	29
ARI	−2.96	26	−0.73	23	−2.23	31	21	32
IND	−3.22	27	−1.39	24	−1.83	30	26	30
PHI	−3.30	28	−2.76	29	−0.54	19	30	21
CLE	−3.32	29	−3.42	30	+0.10	14	29	13
TEN	−3.79	30	−2.59	28	−1.20	25	28	19
LAC	−3.99	31	−3.52	31	−0.47	17	32	20
MIA	−4.91	32	−3.68	32	−1.24	26	31	24

TEAM	LOWFI/0		CURRENT PERFORMANCE
TEAM	TRUE STRENGTH	RANK	WIN PCT	PYTHAG PCT	OFF RANK	DEF RANK
DEN	68.3%± 11.0	1	75.0%	52.5%	22	11
SF	68.1%± 10.8	2	85.7%	69.6%	4	6
BUF	68.0%± 11.1	3	85.7%	64.5%	1	24
CHI	66.0%± 11.1	4	75.0%	66.6%	8	8
MIN	64.0%± 11.5	5	85.7%	72.5%	27	1
NE	63.6%± 11.8	6	62.5%	57.5%	16	9
JAX	62.8%± 12.3	7	71.4%	79.4%	5	2
PIT	61.6%± 11.3	8	75.0%	62.9%	18	3
SEA	59.2%± 12.0	9	50.0%	58.9%	15	7
DET	59.2%± 11.5	10	71.4%	57.1%	3	23
KC	55.6%± 11.8	11	71.4%	64.0%	11	4
GB	54.9%± 11.9	12	62.5%	52.5%	24	10
LA	54.6%± 11.7	13	50.0%	58.4%	10	12
CIN	52.5%± 10.9	14	71.4%	65.2%	2	14
CLE	50.7%± 11.4	15	62.5%	37.3%	29	13
NYG	48.3%± 12.2	16	64.3%	50.7%	13	15
BAL	47.7%± 12.1	17	50.0%	42.6%	19	22
CAR	45.8%± 12.0	18	42.9%	45.2%	9	28
HOU	44.8%± 12.0	19	28.6%	48.2%	12	18
ATL	44.2%± 11.5	20	37.5%	44.1%	24	17
LV	43.5%± 11.8	21	50.0%	47.6%	6	31
TB	42.9%± 12.0	22	37.5%	59.6%	20	5
DAL	40.4%± 11.1	23	37.5%	51.6%	7	27
WAS	40.2%± 12.6	24	35.7%	42.1%	17	26
NO	39.6%± 11.6	25	28.6%	39.5%	14	29
ARI	39.4%± 11.9	26	37.5%	32.5%	21	32
PHI	39.2%± 12.0	27	25.0%	28.5%	30	21
IND	38.7%± 11.0	28	25.0%	31.8%	26	30
MIA	34.3%± 12.0	29	14.3%	26.2%	31	24
NYJ	33.2%± 11.2	30	25.0%	44.1%	25	16
LAC	33.1%± 10.7	31	0.0%	20.6%	32	20
TEN	27.6%± 9.6	32	12.5%	31.7%	28	19

Projections

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TEAM	DIVISION	PROJECTED WINS	PROJECTED POINT DIFF	MAKE POST	WIN DIV	NO.1 SEED	WIN CONF	WIN SB	NO.1 PICK	TOP-5 PICK
BUF	AFC East	12.5	+109	98%	82%	39%	27%	18%	0%	0%
SF	NFC West	12.3	+104	95%	86%	40%	26%	10%	0%	0%
JAX	AFC South	11.8	+154	97%	95%	19%	27%	19%	0%	0%
CIN	AFC North	11.6	+107	90%	58%	14%	14%	9%	0%	0%
MIN	NFC North	11.6	+69	91%	41%	24%	16%	6%	0%	0%
CHI	NFC North	11.3	+83	88%	28%	16%	18%	8%	0%	0%
DEN	AFC West	11.0	+24	84%	49%	10%	7%	4%	0%	0%
DET	NFC North	10.8	+51	81%	26%	14%	13%	5%	0%	0%
PIT	AFC North	10.7	+44	79%	33%	6%	6%	3%	0%	0%
KC	AFC West	10.6	+59	83%	44%	8%	9%	5%	0%	0%
NE	AFC East	9.9	+35	72%	18%	3%	5%	3%	0%	0%
GB	NFC North	9.4	+4	50%	5%	2%	4%	1%	0%	0%
SEA	NFC West	9.2	+51	42%	9%	1%	5%	2%	0%	1%
NYG	NFC East	9.1	−12	63%	60%	2%	4%	1%	0%	1%
LA	NFC West	8.8	+38	35%	5%	1%	4%	2%	0%	1%
CLE	AFC North	8.7	−62	31%	6%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%
LV	AFC West	8.4	−14	27%	7%	0%	1%	0%	0%	3%
BAL	AFC North	8.3	−32	22%	3%	0%	1%	0%	0%	3%
TB	NFC South	7.9	+41	47%	45%	0%	4%	1%	0%	6%
DAL	NFC East	7.7	+15	27%	24%	0%	2%	1%	0%	10%
CAR	NFC South	7.4	−35	30%	27%	0%	2%	0%	0%	8%
HOU	AFC South	7.3	+7	14%	5%	0%	1%	1%	1%	15%
ATL	NFC South	6.9	−39	18%	16%	0%	1%	0%	0%	12%
WAS	NFC East	6.8	−48	15%	13%	0%	1%	0%	1%	19%
ARI	NFC West	6.7	−93	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%
NO	NFC South	6.2	−60	12%	11%	0%	1%	0%	2%	26%
IND	AFC South	5.8	−87	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	45%
NYJ	AFC East	5.7	−48	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%	40%
PHI	NFC East	5.6	−96	4%	3%	0%	0%	0%	5%	47%
MIA	AFC East	4.1	−135	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	17%	72%
TEN	AFC South	4.0	−111	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	30%	85%
LAC	AFC West	3.7	−123	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	33%	82%

TEAM	DIVISION	PROJECTED WINS	PROJECTED POINT DIFF	MAKE POST	WIN DIV	NO.1 SEED	WIN CONF	WIN SB	NO.1 PICK	TOP-5 PICK
SF	NFC West	12.8	+129	96%	88%	44%	29%	14%	0%	0%
BUF	AFC East	12.4	+109	95%	71%	31%	22%	14%	0%	0%
DEN	AFC West	12.1	+71	93%	70%	26%	22%	13%	0%	0%
MIN	NFC North	12.0	+85	91%	45%	26%	18%	8%	0%	0%
CHI	NFC North	11.5	+94	87%	28%	14%	17%	8%	0%	0%
PIT	AFC North	11.5	+74	85%	52%	12%	12%	7%	0%	0%
JAX	AFC South	11.4	+141	94%	92%	12%	16%	9%	0%	0%
DET	NFC North	10.7	+51	77%	22%	10%	10%	4%	0%	0%
KC	AFC West	10.5	+56	76%	27%	6%	6%	3%	0%	0%
CIN	AFC North	10.5	+64	68%	26%	4%	5%	2%	0%	0%
NE	AFC East	10.4	+58	78%	29%	7%	11%	6%	0%	0%
CLE	AFC North	10.0	−16	59%	18%	1%	3%	2%	0%	0%
GB	NFC North	9.5	+8	50%	6%	2%	4%	2%	0%	0%
NYG	NFC East	9.3	−4	70%	67%	2%	5%	2%	0%	1%
SEA	NFC West	9.3	+56	44%	8%	1%	5%	2%	0%	1%
LA	NFC West	8.7	+35	33%	4%	1%	3%	1%	0%	1%
BAL	AFC North	8.3	−30	21%	4%	0%	1%	1%	0%	3%
LV	AFC West	7.8	−38	15%	3%	0%	1%	0%	0%	5%
CAR	NFC South	7.6	−31	37%	35%	0%	2%	1%	0%	7%
ATL	NFC South	7.1	−34	24%	22%	0%	1%	0%	0%	9%
TB	NFC South	7.1	+11	30%	29%	0%	2%	1%	0%	13%
ARI	NFC West	7.0	−83	7%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	14%
DAL	NFC East	6.9	−16	14%	13%	0%	1%	0%	1%	19%
WAS	NFC East	6.8	−49	17%	15%	0%	1%	0%	1%	18%
HOU	AFC South	6.8	−13	11%	6%	0%	1%	0%	2%	22%
NO	NFC South	6.2	−62	15%	15%	0%	1%	0%	1%	25%
IND	AFC South	6.1	−76	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%	3%	33%
PHI	NFC East	5.7	−95	6%	5%	0%	0%	0%	3%	39%
NYJ	AFC East	4.7	−88	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8%	58%
MIA	AFC East	4.2	−138	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%	64%
TEN	AFC South	3.6	−131	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	35%	86%
LAC	AFC West	3.5	−136	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	31%	81%

Over Time

Ratings Over Time

LOWFI/1 net rating by week for all 32 teams, preseason to week 8, in one panel per division. Biggest rises: JAX +4.2, LV +3.4, CHI +2.7. Biggest drops: LAC −5.4, PHI −4.9, IND −3.0.

LOWFI/0 true strength by week for all 32 teams, preseason to week 8, in one panel per division. Biggest rises: MIN +12.9 points of percentage, SF +11.1 points of percentage, CHI +11.0 points of percentage. Biggest drops: LAC -21.9 points of percentage, PHI -15.8 points of percentage, MIA -12.7 points of percentage.

Ranks Over Time

Rank by LOWFI/1 net rating each week, preseason to week 8. Top five now: JAX, BUF, CHI, CIN, SF. Biggest climbs: CHI from 16 to 3, LV from 30 to 18, JAX from 12 to 1.

Rank by LOWFI/0 true strength each week, preseason to week 8. Top five now: DEN, SF, BUF, CHI, MIN. Biggest climbs: KC from 23 to 11, NYG from 28 to 16, CLE from 27 to 15.

Notes

LOWFI/1 power ratings

LOWFI/1 reads scores, not just results, and adjusts for who each team has played. The raw scoring ranks sit beside the model's, and the gap between them are the opponent and other adjustments at work.

LOWFI/0 true strength

LOWFI/0 is the original model, and it only sees wins and losses. True strength is its estimate of how often a team beats an average opponent, and the number beneath it is how much it still doesn't know. Win percentage and Pythagorean percentage are what's actually happened so far, for comparison - Pythagorean is what the points scored and allowed say the record should be.

Projections

Both models run through the same simulation engine, so a cell in one table compares directly with the same cell in the other. Projected point differential is the differential so far plus the average of every simulated game still to play.

Over time

Every point is what that Tuesday's run said, before that week's games - nothing is refit after the fact. The panels are grouped by conference and division, and the rank chart follows each team's place among all 32 from week to week.