Week 1

Every game this week, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with no results yet.

The Games

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AWAY		HOME	LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)			EDGE VS MARKET		HOME WIN PROBABILITY			LOWFI/1 BETTING
AWAY		HOME	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	LOWFI/1	LOWFI/0	MARKET	HOME COVER	PUSH	STAKE /100
BAL	@	IND	−1.1	+2.2	−3.5	+2.4	+5.7	47%	57%	39%	34%	0%	2.00
DAL	@	NYG	−0.1	+0.0	−2.5	+2.4	+2.5	50%	50%	43%	46%	0%	0.00
GB	@	MIN	−0.7	+1.9	+1.5	−2.2	+0.4	48%	56%	52%	50%	0%	0.00
NYJ	@	TEN	+3.7	+2.2	+1.5	+2.2	+0.7	61%	57%	54%	63%	0%	2.00
BUF	@	HOU	+0.6	+2.2	−1.5	+2.1	+3.7	53%	57%	48%	50%	0%	0.00
WAS	@	PHI	+6.2	+6.0	+4.5	+1.7	+1.5	68%	68%	64%	81%	0%	2.00
ARI	@	LAC	+8.9	+7.3	+10.5	−1.6	−3.2	75%	71%	81%	94%	0%	2.00
MIA	@	LV	+2.2	−0.3	+3.5	−1.3	−3.8	57%	50%	64%	68%	0%	2.00
CHI	@	CAR	−1.6	+0.3	−2.5	+0.9	+2.8	46%	51%	41%	41%	0%	2.00
SF	@	LA	+4.4	+2.2	+3.5	+0.9	−1.3	63%	57%	64%	74%	0%	2.00
CLE	@	JAX	+6.7	+7.3	+7.5	−0.8	−0.2	70%	71%	76%	88%	0%	2.00
ATL	@	PIT	+3.7	+3.5	+3.0	+0.7	+0.5	61%	61%	61%	66%	7%	2.00
NO	@	DET	+7.7	+4.1	+7.0	+0.7	−2.9	72%	62%	73%	87%	3%	2.00
NE	@	SEA	+4.1	+2.2	+3.5	+0.6	−1.3	63%	57%	62%	74%	0%	2.00
DEN	@	KC	+3.6	−2.8	+3.0	+0.6	−5.8	61%	42%	57%	65%	7%	2.00
TB	@	CIN	+3.1	+1.0	+3.5	−0.4	−2.5	59%	53%	63%	70%	0%	2.00

Projected Margins

Simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 1 games, 10,000 simulations each. BAL over IND in 52.3% of simulations, expected margin 0.9; NYG over DAL in 50.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.0; GB over MIN in 51.9% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; TEN over NYJ in 60.4% of simulations, expected margin 3.8; HOU over BUF in 51.9% of simulations, expected margin 0.5; PHI over WAS in 66.9% of simulations, expected margin 6.5; LAC over ARI in 72.6% of simulations, expected margin 8.9; LV over MIA in 56.5% of simulations, expected margin 2.2; CHI over CAR in 54.0% of simulations, expected margin 1.5; LA over SF in 61.2% of simulations, expected margin 4.0; JAX over CLE in 68.1% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; PIT over ATL in 60.3% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; DET over NO in 70.1% of simulations, expected margin 7.8; SEA over NE in 61.4% of simulations, expected margin 4.3; KC over DEN in 59.7% of simulations, expected margin 3.6; CIN over TB in 58.1% of simulations, expected margin 3.0.

Notes

The games

Every line and edge reads from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table opens sorted by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

Projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 simulated versions of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.