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Week 1

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with no results yet.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ −1.1 +2.2 −3.5 +2.4 +5.7 47% 57% 39% 34% 0% 2.00
@ −0.1 +0.0 −2.5 +2.4 +2.5 50% 50% 43% 46% 0% 0.00
@ −0.7 +1.9 +1.5 −2.2 +0.4 48% 56% 52% 50% 0% 0.00
@ +3.7 +2.2 +1.5 +2.2 +0.7 61% 57% 54% 63% 0% 2.00
@ +0.6 +2.2 −1.5 +2.1 +3.7 53% 57% 48% 50% 0% 0.00
@ +6.2 +6.0 +4.5 +1.7 +1.5 68% 68% 64% 81% 0% 2.00
@ +8.9 +7.3 +10.5 −1.6 −3.2 75% 71% 81% 94% 0% 2.00
@ +2.2 −0.3 +3.5 −1.3 −3.8 57% 50% 64% 68% 0% 2.00
@ −1.6 +0.3 −2.5 +0.9 +2.8 46% 51% 41% 41% 0% 2.00
@ +4.4 +2.2 +3.5 +0.9 −1.3 63% 57% 64% 74% 0% 2.00
@ +6.7 +7.3 +7.5 −0.8 −0.2 70% 71% 76% 88% 0% 2.00
@ +3.7 +3.5 +3.0 +0.7 +0.5 61% 61% 61% 66% 7% 2.00
@ +7.7 +4.1 +7.0 +0.7 −2.9 72% 62% 73% 87% 3% 2.00
@ +4.1 +2.2 +3.5 +0.6 −1.3 63% 57% 62% 74% 0% 2.00
@ +3.6 −2.8 +3.0 +0.6 −5.8 61% 42% 57% 65% 7% 2.00
@ +3.1 +1.0 +3.5 −0.4 −2.5 59% 53% 63% 70% 0% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 16 week 1 games, 10,000 simulations each. BAL over IND in 52.3% of simulations, expected margin 0.9; NYG over DAL in 50.5% of simulations, expected margin 0.0; GB over MIN in 51.9% of simulations, expected margin 0.7; TEN over NYJ in 60.4% of simulations, expected margin 3.8; HOU over BUF in 51.9% of simulations, expected margin 0.5; PHI over WAS in 66.9% of simulations, expected margin 6.5; LAC over ARI in 72.6% of simulations, expected margin 8.9; LV over MIA in 56.5% of simulations, expected margin 2.2; CHI over CAR in 54.0% of simulations, expected margin 1.5; LA over SF in 61.2% of simulations, expected margin 4.0; JAX over CLE in 68.1% of simulations, expected margin 6.8; PIT over ATL in 60.3% of simulations, expected margin 3.7; DET over NO in 70.1% of simulations, expected margin 7.8; SEA over NE in 61.4% of simulations, expected margin 4.3; KC over DEN in 59.7% of simulations, expected margin 3.6; CIN over TB in 58.1% of simulations, expected margin 3.0.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 1 for the 32 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. PHI 69% with a win, 38% with a loss, a swing of 31 points; KC 71% with a win, 40% with a loss, a swing of 31 points; DEN 70% with a win, 39% with a loss, a swing of 31 points; LA 74% with a win, 45% with a loss, a swing of 29 points; GB 68% with a win, 39% with a loss, a swing of 29 points; WAS 50% with a win, 21% with a loss, a swing of 29 points; SF 73% with a win, 44% with a loss, a swing of 29 points; DAL 56% with a win, 29% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; JAX 60% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; MIN 48% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; DET 75% with a win, 48% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; HOU 64% with a win, 38% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; NO 55% with a win, 29% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; IND 56% with a win, 30% with a loss, a swing of 26 points; CIN 64% with a win, 39% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; NYG 42% with a win, 17% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; LAC 61% with a win, 36% with a loss, a swing of 25 points; BAL 78% with a win, 53% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; CLE 44% with a win, 20% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; CHI 56% with a win, 33% with a loss, a swing of 24 points; SEA 72% with a win, 49% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; BUF 77% with a win, 54% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; CAR 40% with a win, 18% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; PIT 47% with a win, 24% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; TB 61% with a win, 38% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; TEN 36% with a win, 15% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; ATL 43% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; NE 71% with a win, 51% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; NYJ 31% with a win, 12% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; LV 26% with a win, 8% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; MIA 26% with a win, 9% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; ARI 24% with a win, 10% with a loss, a swing of 14 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.