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Week 9

This week's games, as LOWFI saw it on Tuesday morning with results through week 8.

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9

The Games

Click a column to sort.

AWAY HOME
LINE (+ = HOME FAVORED)
EDGE VS MARKET
HOME WIN PROBABILITY
LOWFI/1 BETTING
LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 LOWFI/1 LOWFI/0 MARKET HOME
COVER		 PUSH STAKE
/100
@ −4.9 −2.6 −9.5 +4.6 +6.9 35% 43% 20% 12% 0% 2.00
@ −0.2 +0.8 −3.5 +3.3 +4.3 49% 52% 38% 36% 0% 2.00
@ −2.4 −2.3 −5.5 +3.1 +3.2 43% 43% 32% 26% 0% 2.00
@ −0.4 −0.7 −3.5 +3.1 +2.8 49% 48% 39% 35% 0% 2.00
@ −3.0 +1.7 −6.0 +3.0 +7.7 41% 55% 29% 22% 3% 2.00
@ +7.2 +10.2 +10.0 −2.8 +0.2 71% 78% 81% 91% 1% 2.00
@ +8.8 +8.5 +11.5 −2.7 −3.0 74% 74% 84% 94% 0% 2.00
@ −0.9 −5.1 −3.0 +2.1 −2.1 47% 35% 43% 34% 8% 2.00
@ +7.6 +9.5 +9.5 −1.9 −0.0 71% 76% 80% 91% 0% 2.00
@ −2.8 −1.6 −4.5 +1.7 +2.9 42% 45% 36% 27% 0% 2.00
@ −4.1 −0.3 −3.0 −1.1 +2.7 38% 49% 41% 26% 8% 2.00
@ +3.3 +5.1 +3.0 +0.3 +2.1 60% 65% 58% 64% 7% 2.00
@ +2.7 −1.3 +2.5 +0.2 −3.8 58% 46% 56% 63% 0% 2.00
@ −6.9 −5.7 −7.0 +0.1 +1.3 31% 33% 25% 12% 3% 2.00
@ +5.9 +9.7 +6.0 −0.1 +3.7 67% 77% 70% 82% 2% 2.00

LOWFI/1 Projected Margins

LOWFI/1 simulated margin of victory for each of the 15 week 9 games, 10,000 simulations each. JAX over BAL in 65.0% of simulations, expected margin 5.2; BUF over MIN in 50.8% of simulations, expected margin 0.2; LA over WAS in 56.7% of simulations, expected margin 2.5; NYG over PHI in 51.6% of simulations, expected margin 0.6; DAL over IND in 58.2% of simulations, expected margin 2.9; SF over LV in 69.4% of simulations, expected margin 7.0; SEA over ARI in 74.5% of simulations, expected margin 9.1; DEN over CAR in 53.4% of simulations, expected margin 0.9; KC over NYJ in 70.8% of simulations, expected margin 7.8; HOU over LAC in 57.3% of simulations, expected margin 2.6; CIN over ATL in 61.3% of simulations, expected margin 3.9; NE over GB in 58.9% of simulations, expected margin 3.1; NO over CLE in 57.9% of simulations, expected margin 2.8; DET over MIA in 68.6% of simulations, expected margin 6.7; CHI over TB in 66.6% of simulations, expected margin 5.9.

LOWFI/1 Playoff Leverage

LOWFI/1 playoff odds with a win and with a loss in week 9 for the 30 teams playing, from 10,000 simulated seasons, largest swing first. SEA 49% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 27 points; NYG 75% with a win, 51% with a loss, a swing of 23 points; GB 62% with a win, 41% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; NE 81% with a win, 59% with a loss, a swing of 22 points; TB 62% with a win, 40% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; LV 41% with a win, 20% with a loss, a swing of 21 points; LA 44% with a win, 23% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; CLE 43% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; KC 89% with a win, 69% with a loss, a swing of 20 points; DAL 35% with a win, 16% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; BAL 34% with a win, 15% with a loss, a swing of 19 points; CAR 39% with a win, 22% with a loss, a swing of 17 points; ATL 28% with a win, 12% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; DET 86% with a win, 70% with a loss, a swing of 16 points; CHI 93% with a win, 78% with a loss, a swing of 15 points; WAS 22% with a win, 8% with a loss, a swing of 14 points; HOU 20% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 13 points; DEN 90% with a win, 77% with a loss, a swing of 13 points; ARI 12% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 10 points; CIN 94% with a win, 84% with a loss, a swing of 9 points; NO 16% with a win, 7% with a loss, a swing of 9 points; MIN 95% with a win, 86% with a loss, a swing of 9 points; SF 97% with a win, 91% with a loss, a swing of 6 points; PHI 6% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 6 points; JAX 99% with a win, 94% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; NYJ 4% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 4 points; BUF 99% with a win, 96% with a loss, a swing of 3 points; IND 2% with a win, 1% with a loss, a swing of 2 points; MIA 0% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 0 points; LAC 0% with a win, 0% with a loss, a swing of 0 points.

Notes

The games

All numbers from the home team's side, so plus means the home team is favored. The edge is a model's line minus the market's - how far LOWFI parts ways with the book, and in which direction. LOWFI/0's line is its win probability turned into points, so read it as a translation rather than a points forecast. The table's default sort is by the size of LOWFI/1's edge, and the LOWFI/1 margins chart below follows the same order.

Stakes

STAKE is quarter Kelly, in units per hundred, and it reads zero wherever LOWFI passes. It's here as a comparison with the market, not advice. Every line on this page was snapshotted before the week's first kickoff - and LOWFI wasn't built to beat the market. It usually doesn't!

LOWFI/1 projected margins

Each panel is 10,000 LOWFI/1 simulations of one game. The color is whoever wins that version, and the label says how often that happens and by how much.

LOWFI/1 playoff leverage

Each bar is one team's playoff odds across LOWFI/1's simulated seasons, split by how its game this week goes. The solid bar is its odds in the seasons where it loses, the faded bar where it wins, and the number is the gap - what this one game is worth. Teams are ordered by their playoff odds today, within each conference, and teams on a bye aren't shown.